Reasons to Be Hopeful in 2009

FOR THE NEW YEARS DAY HOLIDAY, my family and I went to New York City. We saw a Broadway musical, went to some museums, looked at Christmas windows, ate a lot, and waded through huge crowds. It was a fun time for all of us. On top of that, the visit gave some shape to the reasons I'm feeling optimistic about the year ahead.

I'm not saying that 2009 will be pain-free or prosperous, though I hope that's the case for all of us. Far more careful and knowledgeable analysts than I are suggesting that the economy might get worse before it gets better. What do I know?

But I don't feel, as some might, that this nation has fallen off a cliff and is headed for a loud, terrible splat at the bottom of the valley and that it will take us years to recover. We're probably headed for a tough year; I'm bracing myself for that. But I think we'll bounce back sooner than later. Here's some of the highly unscientific evidence I saw in New York that gave me such (cautious) optimism. 

Foreigners everywhere. Everyone in my family remarked that nearly everywhere we went we heard foreign languages or foreign accents -- almost more than we heard American English. In fact, it became a sort of game to us to be able to get close enough to hear, over the din of a crowd, whether we were hearing French, British or Australian English, Russian, German, Spanish, Italian or Arabic. Sure, there are a lot of people living in New York who speak other languages, but I'm talking about people who were clearly tourists and, by the way, spending money.

What's that mean? Well, it reminded me that America is still attractive to many others around the world, though, according to the Travel Industry Association, the U.S. share of international travel has dropped by 35 percent over the last 13 years as the world market for tourism grew by 61 percent. Yes, we're losing some ground there, and we need to do something about that. But American is still a magnet to many and likely to remain so, even after the dollar strengthens against other currencies. I don't mean tourism only but other quality goods and services America offers.

It also reminded me that we're very much part of the world, and, once this global economic malaise subsides, that will also be a source of even greater opportunity for us than it has been in the past -- economically and culturally.

That will take some effort on our part. More Americans need to learn to be a little less insular and more open to engaging with the rest of the world. But I think we've been headed in that direction for at least a generation, and the next generation will be even more so. And our success as a nation will depend upon our ability to find and serve new and growing markets around the globe and to tap the best minds we can find wherever we can find them.

Immigrants everywhere. During one of the many taxi rides we took during our three days in New York, I struck up a conversation with a Pakistani cabbie, who eventually got around to speaking with pride about his three children -- two in graduate professional schools and one in college. All of them sound likely on their way to prosperity and to making great contributions to their community and country.

Okay, it's anecdotal, and so are the dozens of identical stories I've heard from other proud immigrant cabdrivers (I talk to a lot of them) who've come to this country to work hard and support kids who will go on to be model Americans. Through immigration, this country continually draws and develops new talent and staves off the the sort of demographic implosion that many other developed nations with little immigration (such as many E.U. countries and Japan) have faced as their populations age and shrink. (Though, as you've heard this rant from me in the past, if we don't fix our immigration laws, we'll be squandering this advantage.) Moreover, people from other countries are still fighting to get into America. Given the choices, they're bullish about the promise of America, why shouldn't I be?

Innovation. New York reminds you of how much this country innovates, especially in areas such as  fashion, art, music, books, theater. Sure, it has some of the technical innovation we usually associate with, say, Silicon Valley or areas like the the Washington, D.C., Metro area, which houses a lot of biotech companies. And it's all there, in New York, bright and shiny.

Our success as a nation has long been due to innovation, even as we have lost our edge in manufacturing and agriculture to many other parts of the world over the last generation or two. We invent things, improve upon them, figure out better ways to make and distribute them. We Americans, who tire quickly of the latest new thing, are more likely than most to demand and quickly adopt the newest and most cutting edge stuff. That kind of environment is nurturing of new innovations. If anything, the rest of the world is trying to catch up to us in that department, as this article in the Economist argues.

True, there are many signs that we could lose our lead on innovation, and there are many who have called for increased investment in cultivating our talents in the sciences and engineering. But our innovation infrastructure, while quite possibly hampered by the current recession, won't be vanquished by it. It's a very solid base to soften our fall.

Global connectivity. Immigration. Innovation. Those are at least three reasons why I feel we'll get through this rough patch. We need to do more to enable us to take full advantage of these assets. But we're in as good a position as any country to build on them and to thrive once again.

Happy New Year.

Jeff

Comments

[Rinky]

You've made my day.It's the first bright look I've heard since all this ugly stuff has taken place. Headlines and TV give only the lowest view of the world. Maybe we all should take a trip to New York to give us a lift.
I must say whenever I get out in the world my question is the same."what happened to the recession"

[Jeff Weintraub]

There's a real recession, don't get me wrong. Some of us are seeing and feeling it a lot more than others (particularly the many people who are losing their jobs). But we're all feeling its effects. I'm not whistling past the graveyard, but trying to look beyond it, which is about the only way to keep from getting dejected by it all.

[Lauri Rowe]

You are right on!
Sometime you should come to our small neck of the woods and see not only those who are struggling, but also those who are helping. The helping group is so much bigger and has so much to offer.
Just an afternoon in our coffeeshop every Monday is enough to get me through the week with an optimistic outlook on life. Keep it up!!!